That take got fewer bites than I expected, so either it’s not very spicy or I need to repeat myself. But I want to give myself some room to expand on this idea.
To the average user, operating systems are boring. In fact, they’re mostly irrelevant. With the exception of some specialized applications (either professional or gaming), the vast majority of users could sit down at any computer and do what they need to do. Give them a web browser, and they can get to everything else.
For the purposes that matter, the Linux desktop has won. Except it’s not traditional distributions like Fedora or Debian. It’s Android and ChromeOS. And it’s not on desktop PCs. It’s on phones, tablets, and some laptops. If we meant something else when we spoke of “The Year of the Linux Desktop”, we should have been more specific.
That said, Linux desktops as Linux enthusiasts envisioned them are suitable for mainstream users. But it’s not because of native, locally-running apps; it’s because software-as-a-service (SaaS) makes the OS irrelevant.
This is not a cause for alarm. It’s actually an opportunity. It’s never been easier to move someone from Windows or macOS to Linux. You don’t have to give them a mapping of all of their old apps, you just say “here’s your browser. Have fun!” That’s not to say that the ecosystem lacks first-rate applications. Great FOSS applications exist for all OSes. But with SaaS, the barrier to changing the OS is dramatically reduced.
Of course, SaaS has problems, both technical and philosophical. We shouldn’t ignore those. The concerns have just moved up to another later. But we have the opportunity to move more people to Linux while we — as both FOSS communities and society in general —- address the concerns of SaaS. Or, perhaps more likely, move them up another layer.