Indiana COVID-19 update: 27 March 2021

I haven’t written an update in nearly two full months. This is only slightly due to laziness. Mostly, it’s because the state’s numbers have been unremarkable. I mean that in a good way. We’ve consistently trended downward in infections (and positivity), hospitalizations, and deaths. However, we seem to have reached the floor and I’m concerned that the early indications suggest an increase. As usual, I am updating my dashboard most days.

Changes in trends

Five days in the past week (including the three most recent) had a daily increase in the hospitalization count. Two days had a 7% or greater daily increase. These are some of the largest increases on record. The hospitalization count is 12% higher than a week ago. Meanwhile, we’ve had a full week of week-over-week increases in positive cases. Only one day in the last 10 showed a week-over-week decline.

Daily and week-over-week changes in COVID-19 hospitalizations in Indiana.

Deaths continue to slowly trend downward, but if the increase in hospitalization holds, expect an uptick in deaths soon. After under-predicting the deaths during the surge in the fall, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) models are consistently over-predicting deaths. However, it does not appear that the most recent model run takes the end of the mask mandate (see “Changes in policy”), so it will be interesting to see how they fare in a month.

Observed and forecasted COVID-19 deaths in Indiana.

Changes in behavior

The IHME’s latest policy brief says mobility in Indiana is 8% below the pre-pandemic baseline. This is a big jump from the 20–25% of just a month or so ago. Meanwhile, mask usage has fallen slightly to 72%. Given these, it’s not hard to see why the numbers are picking back up again. These are both trends specifically called out as factoring into the “worst-case scenario.” (Note that the “reference scenario”—or most likely scenario—is what I plot on my dashboard.)

Changes in policy

Governor Holcomb announced earlier this week that the mask mandate will be gone on April 6. This is bad policy. While all Hoosiers 16+ will be eligible for vaccination beginning on March 31, the earliest a newly-eligible person will be fully vaccinated is April 14. And that assumes that the person can get the vaccine that day and that they receive the one-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Recall that the CDC says people reach full vaccination two weeks after receiving the last shot.

In other words, in the impossibly-best case scenario, the mask mandate ends a week before the state’s (adult) population is fully vaccinated. The more likely case is that we don’t hit the 70% threshold for weeks, perhaps months. Holcomb says “Hoosiers know the science” and will continue to wear masks and follow distancing guidelines once the mandate becomes an advisory. I wonder what Hoosiers the governor has been talking to. Considering how many crowded restaurant parking lots and improperly-worn masks I’ve seen in the past week, I don’t believe him.

This is infuriating, because a mask mandate is essentially free. This is particularly true given how little effort the state put in to enforcing it. Ending the mandate early sends the wrong message. We can only hope that vaccinations outpace the virus. We deserve better than this.

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