It has been over a month since I’ve written one of these. Part of that was because I had other things to do. Part of that was a lack of updated projections from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). And part of it was that I didn’t believe the state’s numbers. I kept updating my dashboard regularly, but it seemed like something was missing: deaths.
I’m not trying to sound like a conspiracy theorist. I don’t think there was any malfeasance. But the data doesn’t always come in right away. I’m not sure what the reporting chain is like, but there are probably a few steps before it gets to the Indiana State Department of Health. The latency increased in December, so I figured any day the numbers would catch up. The drop from 90 deaths a day to 45 was so rapid that it couldn’t be real.
Well I’ve been waiting for weeks and the trend has held. I’m not sure what happened, but about the second week of December the COVID deaths and hospitalizations plummeted. This is a very good thing, even if the explanation isn’t obvious.
The experts at the IHME model run from November 23 just about nailed it in retrospect. Subsequent runs seemed to over correct based on the state’s run of higher-than-forecast fatalities. The model run published yesterday comes closer to reality, but it is still running a bit hot.
The good news is that IHME’s U.S. policy briefing says the peak is behind us (although the model does not account for the recently-discovered strains that are more transmissible).The briefing isn’t all good news, though. Looking forward to teh end of the year, IHME has this to say:
We do not expect the US to reach a level of herd immunity that would prevent a third wave next winter. This is because a quarter of Americans state they will not take the vaccine and a further quarter state they are unsure. In addition, we do not have clear evidence on how much vaccination stops transmission as opposed to preventing severe disease and death. Scale-up of vaccination does mean, however, that the number of deaths in a third wave, if it occurs, would be greatly reduced.
Take the damn vaccine when it’s available!