I’m not going to sit here and try to come up with new ways to say “this is bad”. Not a lot has changed since the last update: the numbers are all chugging along on trend. There is a change to my dashboard, however.
I realized today that I had been pulling the wrong data from the IHME models. I had been entering the “best case” scenario that includes universal mask wearing and the like. What I should have been pulling from was the reference model. This results in higher predicted values.
The overall impact isn’t that great. The scenarios don’t really diverge for a while, so for the most part the model error graph is unchanged. The future, particularly late November and into December is where you notice a difference. The recent models still under-predict the deaths, but the general trend matches well.
IHME said in their latest update that they didn’t make many changes to the model for the latest run. It’s essentially the same as last week but with more recent data. Unsurprisingly, it’s pretty close to the previous run. Both of those have a lower peak than forecasts from September, but still 50% higher than the spring peak.
It’s worth noting that IHME’s model assumes that states will re-introduce restrictions at a certain point. I’m having a hard time seeing that happening in Indiana—at least not as quickly as IHME’s assumption would have it. I wonder how much of Governor Holcomb’s refusal to even entertain the idea of moving back a phase or several has to do with the election in a week and a half. After the election, he’ll either be a lame duck or he’ll be into his last term (sort of). That takes away much of the political risk.