I updated my Indiana COVID-19 dashboard with the latest numbers. It continues to look bad. Hospitalizations are up 15% in the past week. The new daily case record set yesterday is 30% higher than the record set a week ago. We had two days in the last four with 20+ deaths (and bear in mind that the recently daily numbers tend to rise rather significantly in the days that follow).

Most alarming is the latest forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Their 10/15 model forecast is now on the dashboard, and it continues to show a big upswing in fatalities through November and December. The models have been pretty consistent with underpredicting the death count lately, so the big increase in the last two runs is extra worrisome.

In order to get a better sense of the past and possible future, I plotted the observed deaths with each of the model runs I have in the spreadhseet.

While the early September runs were a little hot, none of them really captured the increase we’ve seen over the past few weeks. The last two runs (10/9 and 10/15) are the first two to fully consider the move to Stage 5, I believe. And it’s clear that the forecast is not looking kindly on that.

Indeed, the Governor’s move to Stage 5 looks worse and worse with each passing day. The state health commissioner announced earlier this week that she and her family tested positive.